Case Study: Weather, Water, and Climate Decision Systems

As NOAA evolves to build a more Weather Ready Nation (WRN), it looks to provide not only products, but also Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS). INNOVIM is committed to providing the most advanced scientific capabilities and ensuring our work at NOAA consistently meets user needs and effectively conveys climate and weather information and risks. As we continue to support the development of more accurate and timely outlooks and forecasts, we also explore mechanisms for feedback and more consistent lines of communication with users (e.g. Google Analytics, surveys, webinars, newsletters). We vet outreach materials, graphics, and tools with risk communication best practices.

The work our staff does at NOAA includes the following:

• Studying the variability of drought over the Central U.S. and trends over the last century using observed precipitation, temperature, reconstructed total moisture percentiles, runoff from four land surface models, and the derived Integrated Drought Index
• Approaching severe weather forecasts by analyzing Local Storm Reports (LSRs) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) as observed data, and improving forecast skills based on statistical-dynamical regressions to predict tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail data
• Providing extreme heat forecasting by expanding the two-week forecasting system to include guidance from the ensemble prediction system, blended (GEFS/EPS) guidance, and multiple auxiliary variables
• Preparing and delivering the dynamical hurricane forecast package for hurricane outlooks to CPC forecasters.
• Providing cyclone forecasts to the Global Tropical Hazards team and the public and providing precipitation verification to sub-seasonal forecasters
• Continuing to develop new cyclone tracking algorithms for cyclone forecasts for the Global Tropical Hazards team; providing verification of global tropical precipitation
• Creating new calibration and consolidation methodologies for precipitation forecasts and providing dynamical hurricane forecasts for the Hurricane Seasonal Outlook in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific.
• Assisting in developing the Experimental Outlooks as part of the seamless NWS forecast suite toward a WRN (this is a major goal in the NOAA strategic plan and will improve the scientific basis for this type of outlook); documenting forecast skill and working with users to further improve the usability of this product, including thorough responses to the online NWS Customer Survey

INNOVIM also helps guarantee that NOAA’s climate information is fully translated to a more climate-resilient society by developing and applying statistical-dynamical methods for precipitation and temperature forecasts. In support of this work we calibrate Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation in winter and summer seasons based on an ensemble regression method and predict/bridge temperature and precipitation using indices as predictors in ensemble regression.  INNOVIM also evaluates the probabilistic forecast skill with calibration, bridging, and merging to forecasts.

INNOVIM’s approach guarantees that NOAA’s climate information is fully translated to a more climate-resilient society.