Customer Requirement:
Large volumes of water vapor outside the tropics are transported by Atmospheric Rivers that produce extreme quantities of rain when making landfall. This replenishes aquifers and contribute to beneficial increases in the snowpack; but can cause flooding and significant damage to property and lives. Notable recent examples include the fatal Montecito landslide and debris flow and the Oroville Dam spillway erosion. Accurate forecasts of precipitation during these atmospheric rivers are critical because they play a significant role in water supply and flooding.
Product, Solution, or Service:
Through funding provided by NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) through the Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) program, INNOVIM’s science team has developed and is validating a tool that combines forecast guidance from leading US and international Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers and ancillary data to produce improved rainfall forecasts up to 10 days in advance.
Innovations and Quantified Benefits:
Atmospheric Rivers transport large volumes of water vapor outside the tropics and, when making landfall, produce large quantities of rain that replenish aquifers, and contribute to beneficial increases in the snowpack, yet can cause flooding and significant damage to property and lives. Notable recent examples include the fatal Montecito landslide and debris flow and the Oroville Dam spillway erosion. Accurate forecasts of precipitation during landfalling atmospheric rivers are critical because they play a significant role in water supply and flooding. However, atmospheric rivers’ intensity, location, and duration are poorly forecast in all currently operational NWP models beyond forecast Day 7, resulting in a significant decision support services gap. INNOVIM’s product adds one or more additional days of extreme rainfall prediction lead time over today’s state-of practice.